RACING STATISTICS - Back In Distance?

Many punters believe that it's a disadvantage for a horse to be dropping back in distance from one start to the next, but is that really the case?

To test this theory we ran an analysis over Metropolitan races from 1/1/03 to 7/5/06, examining all strong winning chances in the market (<=$5.00) by their distance change from last start. Horses first up from a spell were excluded, as were all Hurdle and Steeple races.

The facts show that across a large number of races, distance change has very little impact on the success of horses that are otherwise a strong winning chance. If anything, those jumping more than 100m are at a slight disadvantage and those dropping in distance perform a little better than the overall average.

What conclusion can we draw from this? There's absolutely no reason to be put off because a horse is dropping back in distance, unless you have specific evidence that it will not be suited. 

RECENT FORM

Assessing the merits of a horse's recent form requires more than a simple check of its latest finishing positions. Consideration must be given to the suitability of the conditions the horse raced in and any other factors that may have impacted its performance.

For example, a horse that finished unplaced when racing short of its best distance from a wide barrier should not be viewed in the same way as a horse that finished unplaced after racing at its ideal distance with a perfect run behind the leaders.

Following is a simple model that provides a structured approach to the analysis of recent form and most importantly, the use of that information to judge how the horse is likely to perform today.

FORM ANALYSIS MODEL

Previous Runs

• The section on CLASS explains how to develop a class profile for each horse, which indicates the class it is currently up to and potentially able to reach. The first and most important question to answer when looking at a horse's recent form is how suitable was the class of race it contested? Was the horse racing above, below or in approximately its right class?

• What distance was the run over, how does this relate to the horse's best distance range?

• Was the horse likely to be at peak fitness for the run? It's generally safe to assume that horses well into their preparation racing within 21 days of their previous start are at peak fitness. Horses that are first up, possibly 2nd up or racing off a break of more than 21 days may not be at peak fitness.

• What barrier did the horse start from and where did it race in the field? How does this relate to its previous best performances? For example, a horse may usually race in the first 4 runners, but at it's last run it started from a wide draw and raced back in the field. This indicates that the horse may not have been well suited and therefore could not be expected to produce its best.

• How well was the horse suited by the run it had during the race? Did it have a good trip? Or did it get caught wide, suffer interference etc? Was it ridden well or poorly?

• Was the pace advantageous, neutral or a disadvantage to the horse's winning chance?

• What was the track condition on the day? Is there any evidence that this may have impacted the horse's performance either positively or negatively?

• Was there any observable track pattern on the day that may have impacted the horses chance? 

• What weight did the horse carry? Is there any evidence that this may have been a disadvantage to the horse? Refer to the section on weight for some guidelines on how it should be considered in the form puzzle.

  How was the horse expected to perform?

  • What price did the horse start at? Did it firm or ease? The market is extremely efficient in predicting winning chances and horses that start well up in the market and / or firm are expected to perform well. Conversely, horses that start well down the price scale are not expected to be competitive.

   

  How did the horse perform?

  • What was the horse's finishing position and margin? In the circumstances how would you describe the run? For example:

    • Good run, but well suited and expected by the market to run well.

    • Good run, even though unsuited by one or more important factors.

    • Average run, but not all that well suited and was a long shot in betting.

    • Poor run even though ideally suited and expected by the market to run well.

    • Poor run, but totally unsuited and not expected by the market to run well. Forgive the run.

   

  Once you've made an accurate assessment of the merit in a horse's recent form, it becomes much easier to assess its chances in an upcoming race.

Today's Race

How suitable are today's race conditions?

• Consider all of the points listed above relative to today's race. Are they more favourable, less favourable or similar to the conditions encountered in recent runs? Refer to other sections in our Form Basics series for some guidance on how to view various factors such as class, fitness, distance, pace, jockeys, weight etc.

• How do today's conditions compare to those the horse usually performs its best in?

Can you expect the horse to perform better, the same or worse today?

• By piecing together your analysis of a horse's recent form with the suitability of today's conditions you can draw important conclusions about how you expect it to perform today. For example a horse that was poorly suited last start but is ideally suited today can naturally be expected to perform better.